Uncertainty Analysis

Monte Carlo simulations for PK variability. Adjust parameters to see how uncertainty propagates.

Parameter Ranges

Clearance2.0 - 8.0 L/hr

CV:30%

Volume of Distribution30.0 - 100.0 L

CV:25%

Bioavailability0.5 - 0.9

CV:20%

Half-life2.0 - 8.0 hr

CV:35%

Number of Simulations1,000

AUC Distribution

8.0

5th %ile

14.1

Median

32.2

95th %ile

Overall CV: 45.3%

Parameter Sensitivity (Tornado Plot)

Each parameter varied by +/- 20%. Bars show the resulting change in Cmax. The parameter at the top has the greatest impact on output uncertainty.

Vd dominates output uncertainty (41.7% total swing in Cmax)

Enter a Drug to Analyze

Adjust parameter ranges and run Monte Carlo simulations to understand PK variability.

High-Variability Drugs

Monte Carlo Simulation

This module uses random sampling from parameter distributions to estimate outcome variability. Real PK variability depends on patient-specific factors not captured in simplified models.